Retirement income

Planning report
$4,000 a month, Nov 2046 to Oct 2076
Balanced 60/40 · 10,000 market scenarios · today's money

Your plan

What we tested

  1. November 2026Already set asideWhat the plan starts with$250,000
  2. Every month, Nov 2026 to Oct 2046Monthly saving240 payments$1,500
  3. Every month, Nov 2046 to Oct 2076Goal: retirement income360 monthly payments; chance wanted: at least 85% that every one is paid in full−$4,000

Returns are after inflation (2.5% a year) and fees (0.25% a year), so every amount is in today's money: $4,000 in 2076 buys what $4,000 buys today. If there is ever not enough left for a payment, the plan pays what it can and counts that payment as missed.

Where you stand

On track from 85%; room to spare from 95%You want 85%73%chance
! Nearly on track

You have a 73% chance of paying $4,000 a month in full from November 2046 to October 2076.

You want at least 85%, the mark on the ring. In 73 of every 100 market scenarios we simulated, every payment is made in full. When the money runs short, it is typically in October 2066; even then, about 66% of the money planned is paid.

By October 2076

Strong market
1 scenario in 10 does better
$7.5M left
Average market
the middle scenario
$1.2M left
Weak market
1 scenario in 10 does worse
Runs out Jul 2064
Strong marketAverage marketWeak market20462076

Your money over time

100 of the 10,000 simulated markets

Pays in full to the end: 73 of these 100Runs out: 27Average market
$0$2M$4M$6M20302040205020602070Payments of $4,000 a month startAverage market$1.2M leftNov 2026 Average market: $250,000 Strong market: $250,000 Weak market: $250,000May 2027 Average market: $263,000 Strong market: $295,000 Weak market: $237,000Nov 2027 Average market: $279,000 Strong market: $326,000 Weak market: $239,000May 2028 Average market: $296,000 Strong market: $353,000 Weak market: $242,000Nov 2028 Average market: $311,000 Strong market: $383,000 Weak market: $248,000May 2029 Average market: $328,000 Strong market: $412,000 Weak market: $254,000Nov 2029 Average market: $344,000 Strong market: $442,000 Weak market: $263,000May 2030 Average market: $361,000 Strong market: $473,000 Weak market: $270,000Nov 2030 Average market: $378,000 Strong market: $504,000 Weak market: $279,000May 2031 Average market: $396,000 Strong market: $535,000 Weak market: $289,000Nov 2031 Average market: $413,000 Strong market: $568,000 Weak market: $299,000May 2032 Average market: $433,000 Strong market: $600,000 Weak market: $309,000Nov 2032 Average market: $452,000 Strong market: $635,000 Weak market: $318,000May 2033 Average market: $470,000 Strong market: $671,000 Weak market: $328,000Nov 2033 Average market: $488,000 Strong market: $708,000 Weak market: $339,000May 2034 Average market: $510,000 Strong market: $746,000 Weak market: $349,000Nov 2034 Average market: $530,000 Strong market: $782,000 Weak market: $359,000May 2035 Average market: $551,000 Strong market: $822,000 Weak market: $367,000Nov 2035 Average market: $572,000 Strong market: $865,000 Weak market: $378,000May 2036 Average market: $594,000 Strong market: $910,000 Weak market: $390,000Nov 2036 Average market: $618,000 Strong market: $953,000 Weak market: $401,000May 2037 Average market: $639,000 Strong market: $996,000 Weak market: $412,000Nov 2037 Average market: $662,000 Strong market: $1,040,000 Weak market: $425,000May 2038 Average market: $687,000 Strong market: $1,090,000 Weak market: $437,000Nov 2038 Average market: $713,000 Strong market: $1,140,000 Weak market: $448,000May 2039 Average market: $736,000 Strong market: $1,180,000 Weak market: $462,000Nov 2039 Average market: $765,000 Strong market: $1,240,000 Weak market: $473,000May 2040 Average market: $790,000 Strong market: $1,290,000 Weak market: $485,000Nov 2040 Average market: $814,000 Strong market: $1,340,000 Weak market: $499,000May 2041 Average market: $844,000 Strong market: $1,400,000 Weak market: $512,000Nov 2041 Average market: $869,000 Strong market: $1,470,000 Weak market: $523,000May 2042 Average market: $896,000 Strong market: $1,530,000 Weak market: $540,000Nov 2042 Average market: $926,000 Strong market: $1,580,000 Weak market: $552,000May 2043 Average market: $950,000 Strong market: $1,650,000 Weak market: $569,000Nov 2043 Average market: $980,000 Strong market: $1,710,000 Weak market: $584,000May 2044 Average market: $1,010,000 Strong market: $1,780,000 Weak market: $597,000Nov 2044 Average market: $1,040,000 Strong market: $1,840,000 Weak market: $609,000May 2045 Average market: $1,080,000 Strong market: $1,920,000 Weak market: $624,000Nov 2045 Average market: $1,110,000 Strong market: $2,000,000 Weak market: $645,000May 2046 Average market: $1,140,000 Strong market: $2,070,000 Weak market: $657,000Nov 2046 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,150,000 Weak market: $674,000May 2047 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,190,000 Weak market: $658,000Nov 2047 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,230,000 Weak market: $643,000May 2048 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,260,000 Weak market: $626,000Nov 2048 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,310,000 Weak market: $607,000May 2049 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $2,350,000 Weak market: $587,000Nov 2049 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $2,410,000 Weak market: $582,000May 2050 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $2,460,000 Weak market: $564,000Nov 2050 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $2,510,000 Weak market: $543,000May 2051 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $2,550,000 Weak market: $527,000Nov 2051 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,610,000 Weak market: $504,000May 2052 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,650,000 Weak market: $488,000Nov 2052 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,710,000 Weak market: $471,000May 2053 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,760,000 Weak market: $450,000Nov 2053 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $2,840,000 Weak market: $434,000May 2054 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $2,900,000 Weak market: $419,000Nov 2054 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $2,960,000 Weak market: $404,000May 2055 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $3,040,000 Weak market: $389,000Nov 2055 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $3,090,000 Weak market: $369,000May 2056 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $3,130,000 Weak market: $353,000Nov 2056 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $3,190,000 Weak market: $334,000May 2057 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $3,250,000 Weak market: $312,000Nov 2057 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $3,340,000 Weak market: $294,000May 2058 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $3,380,000 Weak market: $276,000Nov 2058 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $3,460,000 Weak market: $253,000May 2059 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $3,520,000 Weak market: $233,000Nov 2059 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $3,610,000 Weak market: $214,000May 2060 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $3,710,000 Weak market: $193,000Nov 2060 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $3,780,000 Weak market: $168,000May 2061 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $3,910,000 Weak market: $147,000Nov 2061 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $3,970,000 Weak market: $125,000May 2062 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $4,050,000 Weak market: $101,000Nov 2062 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $4,120,000 Weak market: $79,500May 2063 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $4,220,000 Weak market: $56,300Nov 2063 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $4,300,000 Weak market: $32,700May 2064 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $4,390,000 Weak market: $9,190Nov 2064 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $4,470,000 Weak market: $0May 2065 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $4,570,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2065 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $4,650,000 Weak market: $0May 2066 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $4,810,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2066 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $4,870,000 Weak market: $0May 2067 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $5,020,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2067 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $5,130,000 Weak market: $0May 2068 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $5,230,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2068 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $5,280,000 Weak market: $0May 2069 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $5,430,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2069 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $5,600,000 Weak market: $0May 2070 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $5,770,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2070 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $5,870,000 Weak market: $0May 2071 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $6,030,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2071 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $6,060,000 Weak market: $0May 2072 Average market: $1,210,000 Strong market: $6,170,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2072 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $6,360,000 Weak market: $0May 2073 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $6,510,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2073 Average market: $1,180,000 Strong market: $6,580,000 Weak market: $0May 2074 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $6,820,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2074 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $6,930,000 Weak market: $0May 2075 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $7,150,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2075 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $7,200,000 Weak market: $0May 2076 Average market: $1,200,000 Strong market: $7,350,000 Weak market: $0Nov 2076 Average market: $1,190,000 Strong market: $7,540,000 Weak market: $0

Each line is one simulated market: 73 of these 100 make every payment in full, as 73% of all 10,000 do; the red ones run out and drop to zero. They were picked evenly from the best outcome to the worst. With no growth at all, the money would run out in July 2059. 17 lines go higher and run off the top of the chart.

Getting on track

Changes that would raise your chance to 85%

Saving more each month
+$750
$2,250 a month instead of $1,500, until October 2046
Gives an 85% chance
Adding to it today
+$144,000
Starting with $394,000 instead of $250,000
Gives an 85% chance
Starting the payments later
+3 years 4 months
Starting in March 2050, saving until then
Gives an 85% chance
Taking a little less
−$840
$3,160 a month instead of $4,000
Gives an 85% chance

Any one of these would be enough on its own. A different investment mix wouldn't: the best of the mixes we tried, Growth 80/20, gives a 78% chance.

What if markets do worse?

We re-ran your plan in two tougher situations. Each bar is your chance of meeting the goal; the mark is the 85% you want.

ChanceIn an average market, by Oct 2076
Your plan as it standsMarkets as in our 10,000 scenarios
73%
$1.2M left
Returns are lower than expectedYour mix earns 1% a year less: typically 3.4% a year after inflation, not 4.4%
55%down from 73%
$163k leftnot $1.2M left
Markets crash as the payments startYour mix falls 26% in the first year of payments, as it did from Dec 2007 to Nov 2008
48%down from 73%
Runs out Jul 2075not $1.2M left
What this meansA crash as the payments start is the bigger danger: the payments keep selling investments while prices are low, so less is left to recover. Of the mixes we tried, Growth 80/20 holds up best in the same crash, at 54%.

Your investment mix

Your mix: Balanced 60/40

US Equity 60%Bonds 40%

Rebalanced back to these weights every month.

How other mixes compare

MixHoldsChanceWeak marketAverage marketWorst year in 20
Cautious 30/70
44%Runs out Jan 2063Runs out Jun 2074−9%
Balanced 60/40Your mix
73%Runs out Jul 2064$1.2M left−16%
Growth 80/20
78%Runs out Dec 2063$2.5M left−20%

Weak and average markets are what is left by October 2076, or when the money runs out. Worst year in 20: only 1 twelve-month stretch in 20 loses more.

How we worked it out

Market scenarios
We simulated 10,000 possible paths for the markets, month by month, by replaying blocks of past monthly returns, about 12 months at a time, in a random order (a stationary block bootstrap). The past returns are the assets' monthly returns from Nov 1996 to Oct 2026.
Strong, average and weak markets
The average market is the middle scenario (the median). Only 1 scenario in 10 does better than the strong market (the 90th percentile), and only 1 in 10 does worse than the weak market (the 10th).
Chance
The share of scenarios in which every payment from November 2046 to October 2076 is made in full.
Status
Room to spare when the chance is at least 95%; on track when it is at least the 85% you want; nearly on track when it is up to 15 points below it; off track below that. The thin green arc on the ring marks the on-track zone.
Today's money
Returns are after inflation (2.5% a year) and fees (0.25% a year), so every amount is in today's money: $4,000 in 2076 buys what $4,000 buys today. Taxes aren't included.
Getting on track
Each change is worked out on the same scenarios, one at a time: the smallest change that gives an 85% chance.
Runs out
The month the money can no longer pay in full. In a weak market, that is the month by which 1 scenario in 10 has run out; in an average market, half have.
What if markets do worse
Lower returns: every scenario earns 1 percentage point a year less. A crash: the markets of the worst 12 months in the data for your mix (Dec 2007 to Nov 2008) replace the same months of every scenario; other mixes are tested with the same months.
Worst year and largest fall
Worst year in 20: only 1 twelve-month stretch in 20 of the scenarios loses more. Largest fall: the typical largest fall from a peak over the plan's 50 years, before any money is paid in or out. Volatility: of the mix's monthly returns in the history, a year, before inflation.
What this can't tell you
The scenarios only replay months that happened, so none has a month worse than the worst in the data. The chance is an estimate from past markets, not a promise.
Repeatable
Seed 0: the same plan gives the same report.

Important. The projections in this report about the likelihood of investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Results may vary with each use and over time: different data, assumptions or seeds give different figures, while the same inputs and seed give the same report.

Not advice. This report is for illustration and information only. It is not investment, financial, tax or legal advice, and it is not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security or to follow any strategy. The changes it shows illustrate what the figures would need; they are not suggestions to act. Before making financial decisions, consider your own circumstances and, where appropriate, seek advice from a qualified professional.

Every figure is computed by Finalytics 1.0.0-rc.7 from 10,000 simulations of the assets' monthly returns from Nov 1996 to Oct 2026, seed 0; the same inputs give the same report, identified by the input digest 3596cc50f490.